ICM

Last night, I decided to play 2 STT games simultaneously with the express intention of loading the hand history into SNG Wizard to analyze my bubble play. I don't normally use any kind of ICM calculator during actual play, since it takes a long time to set-up. And I am of the belief that even though it helps you earn some money, it also acts as a crutch and you tend to rely on it more than you have to. Its better to rely on your own ICM knowledge and then compare results afterwards with the software. Analyzing hand histories every once in a while using an ICM calculator is critical to figuring out your wrong moves and leaks.

In the 1st game, I finished 1st. I loaded the hand history into SNG Wizard. And waddyaknow. It turns out that I did not make one single mistake. A perfect ICM decision game and I end up 1st. Hmmmm...

In the 2nd game, I finished 5th. Same software. But this time SNG Wizard told me I made 4 mistakes in the ICM pushes that I made. Or rather the ones I didn't make. 3 of the mistakes were me being in the small blind with a hand like J2 and Q7 which I folded. But the software was asking me to push. The other mistake was actually a borderline push on my side. I pushed with A8 in the cutoff+1 and the software was asking me to fold, but A9 was already a push. So I'm ok with this decision.

I am actually aware of this "SB not pushing" leak in my game. But for now, I just cannot wrap my mind around the concept of pushing from the small blind when it is folded to you with a very wide range of hands. I do push loosely when its just SB vs BB. So hands like Kx or J9 or Q9s, I would push. But still iffy on the crappier hands even if the math says otherwise.

To conclude of course that playing perfect ICM will allow you to ITM everytime is fallacious. It is entirely possible to play with no ICM knowledge but still end up winning the game. And on the opposite side of the spectrum, you can play and make perfect ICM decisions and still not end up ITM.

To put it simply, ICM is just a mathematical model that allows you to make the correct push fold decision in the latter stages of an SNG or STT. It compares the equity of folding and the equity of pushing. And whichever is higher is the decision that you make. Actually, it is a little more complicated than this. But this is the easiest way to understand it without making it seem like mumbo jumbo to the average poker player.

ICM is not the end-all of SNG play and it is not perfect. It relies a whole lot on the hand ranges that you think your opponents will push or call with. Wrong assumptions will result in wrong decisions.

But one thing should be clear. As you mature in the game and you increase in limits, the only way to make consistent money if you are an SNG player is to know when to push or fold during the bubble. And the only way of precisely measuring this decision is thru ICM. Mastering ICM will enable you to make positive expectations decisions everytime and obviously this will lead to profits in the long run.