Freerolls are not Free

There is nothing sweeter sounding to the ear of the poker player than hearing the word FREEROLL.

No Buy-in. Nothing to lose. Getting something for nothing. Libre. These are all phrases that we associate with the word FREEROLL.

And one cannot deny the value of the FREEROLL to the newbie poker player. It is a way to build a bankroll from scratch. In a third world country like the Philippines where almost 80% of your income go to basic needs like food and shelter. Filipinos don’t really have much disposable income to spend on leisure and entertainment expenses like poker. So for the poker fanatic, this is where FREEROLLS come in and it is like mana from heaven. Building a bankroll from 0 is probably one of the most satisfying achievements for a poker player.

But as you mature in this game and start winning consistently in whatever limit/game you play. Then freerolls can no longer be considered free. Why is that you may ask?

Freerolls are no longer free because there is now a cost associated with it. Uh-oh, what the heck is nova talking about ? Kaya nga FREE eh... how come you are talking about cost? No buy in nga diba?

The cost I am referring to is the opportunity cost. In economic terms, opportunity cost is defined as the value of a product forgone to obtain another product.

Translated to poker terms. The cost is the time that you spend playing the freeroll. Let’s say on average it is 4 hours. This 4 hours may not have too much value for the beginner as he has nothing better to do. But for the winning poker player, this 4 hours can be spent playing & winning at his usual game and limit whether it be SNGs or cash games.

The winning poker player has an average profit per hour that he is forgoing because he is playing the freeroll. So if a player on average earns $10/hour/table playing whatever his game is. In essence, it is the same as saying he paid $40 ($10 x 4 hours of play) to play that freeroll.

Of couse I am oversimplifying some things, but I am hoping you get my point. This point was reinforced to me last week when I tried to play one of those FPT Phase 1 freerolls. I said to myself. Let’s try it. Nothing to lose, right? But the play was just crazy. Half of the players were going all in on the first hand trying to double up. The other half were sitting out. They were probably thinking there’s another freeroll in 2 hours if I bust out. Some players were raising 8x the BB with junk hands. This is just plain weird as the only players who will call you with that kind of raise are the one who’ve got you beat.

In the end, I was so frustrated that I just went all in with a semi decent hand. Of course, I immediately busted out because I got called by somebody with QQ. Heheh

Let me be clear, I am not sour-graping about the bust-out. But I was disappointed with the play and I found it a waste of time. And it is not really the fault of the players, but more of the way the freerolls were structured. There were just too many phase 1 freerolls on offer such that players were hoping to get lucky on hail marys. The play would have been much better and more skill oriented if there were only a few phase 1 freerolls, because now players had a limited chance of qualifying and would not dare waste the opportunity.

But going back to my topic of opportunity cost and applying it to this situation. The time one could have spent playing a cash game, SNGs or even a low buy in MTT where you had a good chance of ITM was pretty much lost playing a free for all where luck was the only deciding factor. So it should not be considered free.

If we were to get really technical and do a comparison so that you can look at it mathematically.

Let’s assume - Winning player A who is earning an average of $10 an hour plays the freeroll. Freeroll finishes in 4 hours. 200 players played. 10 seats awarded. His chance of winning is 10/200 which is actually accurate with the way the players were playing. So how much should the prize (P) be for it to be worth his time? We can compute this thru a simplified break even analysis

10/200 x (P) = $10 x 4
P = $800

Yep, the value comes out to 800 DOLLARS or 36,000 PESOS. That means the prize had to be more than 36,000 PESOS for it to be worth his time. But wait, the prize for the phase 1 freeroll is only a ticket to a phase 2 freeroll (worth $25 or 1000 pesos) where the player has to again roll the dice of luck to finally win the ticket worth only 10,000 PESOS.

So LUGI siya diba? Another way of looking at it is the player paid $40 to have a 1/20 chance at winning $25.

Comparing this to the freeroll player who is just a beginner. Or the guy who has a negative profit expectation. Their break even equation becomes

10/200 x (P) = $0
P=$0

For him, playing the freeroll is certainly worthwhile. His expected breakeven prize is 0 so anything more than 0 is advantageous to him.

I am not maligning the Pokerstars freeroll system. It is designed to attract as many new players into the game as possible (who might become real money players in the future). In fact I am supportive of the way Pokerstars has opened the game to thousands of players with their generous freerolls.

I am only trying to make a point that once you reach a certain hourly profit level. Freerolls are no longer free. They are still free in the traditional sense that you don't put up any money, but a winning player should now check the prize against his hourly profit level to see if it is worth playing. I may have assumed some of the values, but I think the arguments are logical. What do you think?